Nber business cycle dating committee
The committee places particular emphasis on two monthly measures of activity across the entire economy: (1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and (2) employment.In addition, the committee refers to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing and goods: (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes.It is the “ups and downs” in economic activity, defined in terms of periods of expansion or recession.The US’ National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real gross domestic product (GDP), real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A BCDC maintains a chronology comprising alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity.The Federal Reserve has been mandated by Congress to promote maximum employment and price stabilityits called the Feds dual mandate.The term cycle in business cycle can be misleading because it implies regularity.
The euro area groups together a set of different countries.
See Methodology Does CEPR use a different approach to NBER?
See The CEPR and NBER Approaches What data does the Committee use?
Yesterday, Jim presented his latest estimates of the recession probability .
Today, I want to update () where we stand regarding the indicators the NBER uses in judging whether the economy is in a recession.